Maharashtra’s victory within the battle in opposition to the Covid-19 outbreak appears like an uphill activity amid the day by day spike in optimistic circumstances and the mushrooming of newer sizzling spots throughout the state. After the state crossed the grim mark of two lakh circumstances on Saturday, it has a number of challenges forward, together with containing the unfold of the virus, ramping up the well being infrastructure in sizzling spots aside from Mumbai, and holding the fatality charge in examine.
It took 96 days for the state to cross the 1 lakh mark, however the 2 lakh determine was breached inside a mere 22 days.
Despite the grave scenario within the state, well being minister Rajesh Tope is assured that the virus unfold will stabilise in a number of weeks. However, the minister didn’t want to remark if the state is but to succeed in its peak. “There is no point in talking about the peak now. I think that the cases in the state will flatten by August,” he mentioned.
According to senior officers, the problem now’s even larger than earlier than, because the state authorities ‘unlocked’ a number of restrictions.
Though Mumbai continues to stay the worst-affected metropolis in Maharashtra, the day by day surge within the variety of circumstances has stabilised. However, the brand new sizzling spots in the remainder of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) in addition to within the cities of Pune, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Nashik and Aurangabad are actually witnessing a excessive variety of new circumstances day-after-day.
In the previous two weeks, cities in MMR, excluding Mumbai, contributed over 41% of the circumstances recorded within the state. Between June 22 and July 4, the area recorded 27,808 circumstances.
According to Tope, like Mumbai, the satellite tv for pc cities, too, will witness a decline in day by day circumstances. “Cases had spiked in south Mumbai but have subsided now. Cases from Dharavi and other major slums have also reduced. Now hot spots have resurfaced in north Mumbai and MMR. But the cases will be under control in the next 15 days there also,” he mentioned.
Senior well being division officers mentioned that densely populated areas, ease in restrictions on motion, and opening up of companies, and so forth., led to the surge in MMR. Laxity involved tracing additional fuelled the surge in MMR’s circumstances.
“As things have opened up now, the major challenge is to keep the numbers in control. The movement of citizens has increased after Unlock 2.0. Apart from social distancing campaigns, we have enforced closure of areas or selective lockdown now,” state well being commissioner Anup Kumar Yadav mentioned.
As areas in MMR wouldn’t have satisfactory well being infrastructure, district collectors and municipal commissioners depend on stringent lockdown measures to grapple with the rising Covid-19 circumstances right here. The scenario in Mumbai got here underneath management owing to a robust private and non-private well being infrastructure. However, in the remainder of MMR, barring Thane metropolis, the well being infrastructure will not be as robust, mentioned Yadav.
“We have invested a lot to ramp up the infrastructure. Thane has a strong infrastructure but other corporations are not developed on the lines of Mumbai and Thane. We have conducted the gap analysis and proposed new Covid care centres, there is increased supply of ventilators as well as an increase in quarantine centres. In a short span of time, we are trying hard to supplement the health infrastructure. As of now, there is no shortage of bed or other equipment,” Yadav mentioned.
According to a civic official, round 80% of the optimistic sufferers are asymptomatic or have gentle signs and due to this fact they get better of their dwelling with out burdening the well being infrastructure in MMR area.
Tope additionally acknowledged the shortage of institutional quarantine services in different elements of MMR.
He mentioned he directed municipal commissioners from the area to place quarantine contaminated sufferers at institutional services.
Lack of aggressive contact tracing
Senior well being division officers identified that lack of aggressive contact tracing prompted a number of areas to take longer to regulate the circumstances. They added that it has a “cascading effect” which in the end impacts the probabilities of survival of a optimistic affected person.
“Data shows that a positive patient comes to hospital on the fifth day of getting infected because tracing did not take place. In the meantime, they develop severe symptoms and the patient’s chances of recovery reduce. They also infect others before they are hospitalised. Ideally, we want patients [who need hospitalisation] to be admitted between 24 and 48 hours,” a well being division official mentioned.
Tope admitted that contact tracing ratio within the state is 1:6 versus the 1:15 goal (15 contacts per one Covid-19 affected person).
Cases seeing surge in different cities too
In the previous two weeks, Pune metropolis recorded round 8,112 circumstances, whereas the adjoining Pimpri-Chinchwad area recorded practically 2,000 new circumstances throughout the identical interval.
Nashik and Aurangabad too have been recording circumstances day-after-day that largely contribute to the state’s cumulative determine. But officers mentioned that for the reason that motion in these areas will not be as a lot as what’s witnessed in MMR, circumstances are usually not rising exponentially.
“We have adequate health infrastructure in Pune and other rural areas. The state has set up a task force in every district and advice from expert doctors, epidemiologists and virologists are being made available to rural patients with comorbidities,” Yadav mentioned.
Another problem earlier than the state authorities is its battle in opposition to the rising fatality charge. After the state recorded 295 deaths – its highest ever in a day – the fatality charge in Maharashtra stands at 4.33% on Saturday.
Yadav mentioned the state has stepped up efforts to fight the fatality charge.
“The death rate is largely under control. We have set up task forces, introduced a new clinical guideline, and experts guide the physicians treating Covid patients in rural areas through video conferencing. We also have the necessary drugs, including Remdesivir, and we are getting ventilators also,” Yadav mentioned.